Cognitive biases: when we (don't) think, we get it wrong
modafinil acheter en ligne п»їOn a daily basis we make many decisions. Most of them at high speed, almost without thinking. The truth is that we rarely get to assess the consequences that each of the options we have in mind would imply, in case we choose them as a solution.
At other times, especially when we think that decisions are important, we value the information we have in order to find the best option. But something we hardly take into account when making decisions are the cognitive biases that influence the solutions we imagine and give. These biases are dangerous in that they can lead us to make unrealistic decisions.
However, cognitive biases and heuristics are not bad, in fact we could say that they are a kind of mental shortcut (a bit treacherous at times, that's true). In this sense, we say they are shortcuts because we use them to save cognitive resources (mental energy).
For example, if every time I go to a bar, I spend half an hour thinking about which drink will be the most suitable, evaluating each of its components separately and in interaction, I will end up tired and I will waste time that I could invest in other matters. Therefore, heuristics and cognitive biases will make our thinking faster, saving resources that we will use in other more important tasks.
Two ways of thinkingAccording to Daniel Kahneman, there are two ways of thinking. This author gathers the two ways of thinking in two systems which he calls "thinking fast" and "thinking slow". The first system, by which we think fast, is automatic. This system usually operates below our level of consciousness. Emotions strongly influence this type of thinking and often lead to stereotyped thoughts. Its function is to generate intuitions that can help us, but also betray us.
The second system corresponds to slow thinking. This type of thinking is less frequent and requires more effort. This thinking is done consciously, as opposed to fast, logical and calculating thinking. Its main function is to make final decisions, albeit after observing and controlling the intuitions of fast thinking.
The first system tends to be more dominant. In opposition, the second system tends to be lazier. Normally, we are guided by quick thinking. A tendency that has repercussions, such as jumping to conclusions, exaggerating the effect of first impressions, confusing relationships with causality, and relying too much on the data we know (without taking into account other data also available).
Thinking heuristicsA heuristic is considered to be a shortcut to active mental processes and, therefore, is a measure that saves or reserves mental resources. Since our cognitive (metal) capacity is limited, we allocate resources, devoting a greater amount to those elements - preoccupations, activities, people, etc. - that need more mental work.
We can walk without paying attention, but if the road is bumpy and we think we may trip and fall, we will allocate more cognitive resources, attention, to watch where we step. Among the existing heuristics, some of the most important are:
Availability heuristic: it is used to estimate the probability of an event occurring, based on the previous information we have. People who watch a lot of television, given the large amount of violence that appears, think that many more violent crimes are committed than people who watch less television.
Simulation heuristic: this is the tendency of people to estimate the probability of an event based on the ease with which they can imagine it. What is easier to imagine is attributed more probability. When there is an attack, it is easier for us to think that it has been committed by jihadists than by groups that attack less frequently or whose way of meaning is usually different.
Anchoring heuristic: used to clarify uncertainties, taking as a reference a starting point, the anchor, which we then adjust to reach the final conclusion. If my team won the league last year, I will think that this year it has a better chance of winning it again, even if it has only won it once in its history.
Heuristic of representativeness: inference about the probability that a stimulus (person, action, event) belongs to a certain category. If a person has been a very good student of science subjects and when years go by we see her wearing a white coat, we will infer that she is a scientist, not a butcher, but the truth is that we do not really know.
Cognitive biasesCognitive biases are psychological effects that distort thoughts. Like heuristics, biases have the function of saving cognitive resources. While biases can lead us to errors that can be serious, in certain contexts they lead to faster and more effective decisions. Some of the best known biases are the following:
Confirmation bias: this is the tendency to research or interpret information that confirms pre-conceptions. If we have invested in the stock market, we will look for opinions in the press, blogs and forums that confirm our investment ideas, ignoring comments that express a different opinion. Similarly, if we have bought a car, we will look for those opinion articles that highlight its positive features, thus obtaining reinforcement for our decision.
False consensus bias: this is the tendency to believe that one's own opinions, beliefs, values and habits are more widespread among the rest of the population than they really are. If I am against the death penalty, I will think that the majority of people in my country also think like me.
Correspondence bias: better known as the fundamental attribution error is the tendency to overemphasize other people's substantiated explanations, behaviors, or personal experiences. If a classmate fails an exam that you both took, on equal terms, you are more likely to attribute it to being lazy and uninterested in studying.
Hindsight bias: the inclination to see past events as predictable. When a friend gets fired from work we tell him that we already knew it was going to happen because the company was not doing well. However, before he was fired we would not have predicted it.
Knowing cognitive biases and heuristics will make us more efficient when making decisions. Although difficult to avoid, sometimes impossible, thought biases can be reduced through knowledge of how they operate and awareness. Assessing all alternatives and seeking information that both supports and contradicts our initial beliefs is one way to reduce them. In addition, avoiding biases can make our thinking more creative.
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